Glossary & Data

R/R

Reward-to-Risk ratio. How much you stand to gain versus lose: the distance from entry to target divided by entry to stop. We want at least 3:1 — risk €1 to make €3.

Reward / Risk

How much you stand to gain versus lose — the distance from entry to target divided by entry to stop. We want at least 3:1.

Conviction

How strongly the analysis backs this pick. HIGHEST = trend, value and reward/risk all align; LOW = speculative. Higher conviction earns a larger position.

Moat

A company’s durable competitive advantage — the thing that keeps rivals out. Strong = wide and lasting (brand, network, scale); Weak = easily copied.

Entry Zone

The price range where this pick is a good buy. Below it = even better value; above it = wait for a pullback.

Stop Loss

The price where the thesis is broken and you exit to protect capital. A pre-decided line in the sand — no emotion.

12M Target

The 12-month price target — where the analysis expects the stock to be priced if the thesis plays out.

Upside

The percentage gain from today’s price to the 12-month target.

P/E

Price-to-Earnings ratio — the share price divided by earnings per share. A rough gauge of how expensive a stock is versus its profits. “N/A” means the company isn’t yet profitable.

Rev Growth

Revenue growth — how fast sales are growing year-over-year. High growth can justify a high P/E.

Net Margin

Net profit margin — the share of revenue left as profit after all costs. Higher is healthier.

D/E

Debt-to-Equity ratio — how much debt the company carries versus shareholder equity. Lower is safer; above ~2 is a red flag for risky names.

Risk

Our 1–10 risk score for the setup (10 = riskiest). Factors in volatility, balance-sheet strength and how speculative the thesis is.

RVOL

Relative Volume — today’s volume versus its recent average. A spike (2×+) often means big money is moving and something is happening.

Position Sizer

Works out how many shares to buy so that, if your stop is hit, you only lose a fixed small percentage of your account (default 1.5%). The core of risk discipline.

Buy Zone

The pick’s price is currently inside its ideal entry range — actionable now, if the reward/risk also clears the bar.

Regime

The market’s overall mood. RISK-ON = money flowing into growth; RISK-OFF = defensive; ROTATION = sector shift; CRISIS = stress. We size positions down in riskier regimes.

Track Record

A live, honest log of every pick recorded at its price on the day it was logged, then measured forward — wins and losses both shown.

200-Day Moving Average

The average closing price over the last 200 trading days. The standard dividing line for a long-term trend: above it is an uptrend, below it a downtrend. One day’s move barely shifts it, which is exactly why it’s useful over months.

Breadth

How MANY names in a group are participating in a move, not just how far the average moved. A sector where 90% of names sit above their 200-day is in a broad, durable uptrend; one at 40% is being carried by a couple of winners and is far more fragile.

Market Cap

Share price × total shares outstanding — the standard measure of a company’s size. It is not the same as a daily price move: a small company can jump 10% on news that barely moves a giant.

VIX

The market’s expected volatility over the next 30 days, derived from S&P 500 options — often called the "fear gauge". Rising VIX means investors are paying up for protection; falling VIX means complacency or calm.

10-Year Treasury Yield

The interest rate the US government pays to borrow for 10 years. It sets the baseline "risk-free" return everything else is measured against — when it rises, future company profits are discounted harder and richly-valued stocks tend to suffer.

Relative Strength

How a stock or sector performed versus the broad market, not in isolation. A sector up 1% on a day the S&P rose 2% actually underperformed — relative strength is what separates a genuine sector story from simply riding the tape.

Long-Duration Growth

Companies whose value rests mostly on profits expected years out — software and AI names especially. Like long-dated bonds, they are the most sensitive to interest rates, because higher rates discount distant cash flows more heavily.

Risk-On / Risk-Off

The market’s prevailing appetite for risk. Risk-on: money flows to growth, small-caps and speculative names. Risk-off: it retreats to cash, large-caps and defensives. Watch small-caps and the VIX together to read which is in force.

CPI Inflation

The Consumer Price Index — the official measure of how fast prices are rising, published monthly. Reported year-over-year, because the index level alone means nothing. It is the single biggest input into what the Fed does with interest rates.

Fed Funds Rate

The overnight interest rate the US Federal Reserve sets. It is the anchor for borrowing costs across the whole economy — raising it cools inflation but slows growth; cutting it does the reverse.

Guidance

What management says it expects for NEXT quarter or year, given alongside results. Markets frequently punish a company that beat on the current quarter but guided the future lower — the outlook usually matters more than the print.

Catalyst

A specific, identifiable event that moves a stock: earnings, a contract, trial data, a regulatory decision. If a move has no catalyst in the news, it is usually drifting with the broader market rather than repricing on fresh information.

Sector Rotation

Money moving OUT of one group of stocks and INTO another — say from tech into energy — without leaving the market. It’s why the index can sit flat while individual sectors move sharply in opposite directions.

Small-Cap

A smaller company by market cap; the Russell 2000 is the usual benchmark. Small-caps typically carry more debt at floating rates and less cash buffer, so they tend to underperform when rates rise or growth worries build — which makes them a useful risk-appetite signal.

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Equities · prices & fundamentals

Real-time quotes, historical price charts, the day’s biggest movers, and company fundamentals across the full watchlist.

FRED · St. Louis Fed

Macro · rates & economy

Federal Reserve Economic Data: Treasury yields, interest rates and the macro series behind the market-regime read.

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